The Fragile Grid: Strains, Risks, and the Path to Resilience
Grid fragility intensifies as our reliance on it continues to grow.
Why the Grid Is Becoming Fragile
Straining Under the Weight of Soaring Electricity Demand
For decades, electricity demand was an unremarkable constant—a steady hum in the background of modern life. Even as the world became more computerized and interconnected, advances in productivity and energy efficiency tempered the need for more power. Economic growth didn’t translate into skyrocketing electricity use; if anything, conservation efforts and efficiency gains led many to predict a decline in demand. But that era of stability has given way to something far more dynamic—and uncertain.
Today, we’re witnessing a seismic shift. Once-flat growth projections have been replaced with forecasts so wide-ranging they seem to broadcast our collective uncertainty about just how much demand might increase. Several forces are driving this dramatic change.
First, the rapid electrification of transportation and other sectors, long anticipated, is finally accelerating. But the arrival of artificial intelligence (AI) has added an entirely new layer of complexity. AI’s energy appetite dwarfs that of traditional technologies like Google searches, consuming energy on a scale at least an order of magnitude higher. Furthermore, AI amplifies energy use across other domains, such as image and video generation, pushing demand even higher.
The resurgence of domestic manufacturing is another critical factor. Spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic’s exposure of supply chain vulnerabilities and escalating geopolitical tensions with China, industries critical to national security—like semiconductors, batteries, and minerals—are increasingly relocating to North America. The wave of new investments has revived interest in manufacturing to levels unseen since the pre-globalization era.
Compounding these shifts is the growing intensity of extreme weather. Heatwaves have driven a surge in air conditioner purchases, while cold snaps in regions as far south as Texas and Florida have prompted widespread adoption of heat pumps.
The result is a grid under mounting strain. Rising demand must be met with corresponding increases in supply and capacity. Without this balance, the system becomes more fragile, and the risk of blackouts grows.
Strained by the Integration of Renewables
Meeting surging electricity demand requires the ability to supply power precisely when and where it’s needed. Yet, this poses a significant challenge because renewables rarely align seamlessly with demand. Their fluctuating output places the burden squarely on the grid to balance mismatched supply and demand.
To adapt, the grid must become far more agile—capable of rapidly transporting vast quantities of electricity across hundreds, sometimes thousands, of kilometers from generation sites to areas of need. Without such agility and expansiveness, the risk of curtailment and underutilization of renewable assets grows. Underutilization increases costs, discouraging further investment and undermining progress toward clean energy.
Expanding grid infrastructure is critical to accommodating both rising demand and renewable energy. The grid’s capacity must double by 2040 to meet global climate commitments. However, unlike constructing a power plant, grid expansion is an arduous process. In the United States alone, 1,500 GW of renewable energy and 1,000 GW of storage projects are stuck in interconnection queues. The time it takes for projects to progress from interconnection request to operation has ballooned—from just two years in 2008 to five years in 2023. By comparison, data centers or power stations can be built in far less time.
This slow pace of grid development stems from numerous roadblocks. Lengthy bureaucratic processes and community resistance—especially from those opposed to nearby transmission lines—often delay projects indefinitely. The pace of demand growth has outpaced the efficiency of grid expansion, creating a bottleneck. Without significant reform, these delays will continue to threaten grid reliability, stymie the energy transition, and leave countless projects abandoned as they become financially unviable. As of 2023, only 14% of interconnection requests made between 2000 and 2018 had been completed.
Grid storage offers a partial solution. While the falling costs of lithium-ion batteries have made storage projects more feasible, their capacity remains limited. Co-located storage at renewable sites could smooth supply variability and reduce reliance on the grid for stabilization. However, lithium-ion batteries are best suited for short-term balancing over hours, not the extended weather variations that pose a greater challenge. Long-duration storage technologies are essential to address these gaps. Until they become viable at scale, fossil fuel plants will remain a necessary fallback, further delaying their closure.
Weather-Related Risks Are Rising
Over the past 25 years, weather-related disruptions to the U.S. grid have increased significantly. In fact, interruptions from 2014 to 2023 were double those from 2000 to 2009. This troubling trend coincides with a growing dependence on the grid—not just for everyday needs but increasingly for essentials like transportation and home heating.
Climate change is intensifying the grid's vulnerabilities. As global temperatures rise, the severity of weather events has escalated, from heat waves and cold snaps to prolonged droughts. These extreme conditions not only damage infrastructure but also create sudden spikes in electricity demand or sudden disruptions in electricity supply, straining systems already operating near their limits. Recent crises in Texas and California illustrate how such events can overwhelm the grid, forcing rolling blackouts or, worse, outright failures.
A significant portion of the U.S. transmission and distribution network relies on overhead cables, leaving it exposed to the elements. To withstand the onslaught of more frequent and severe weather, the grid must evolve. Strengthening physical infrastructure is essential, but so too is expanding grid capacity, enhancing its agility, and investing in utility-scale storage to manage renewable variability, especially those driven by weather related disruptions.
Cost-effective solutions must also look beyond infrastructure alone. Flexible demand strategies, including Virtual Power Plants (VPPs), can complement traditional upgrades. By coordinating decentralized resources like home batteries and smart appliances, VPPs help stabilize the grid during peak demand without requiring costly, specialized infrastructure. Together, these approaches could offset the need for peak-demand-specific projects utilities typically pursue.
Ultimately, the pace at which we adopt these innovations—and transform the grid into one capable of sustaining a largely electrified world—will determine the speed of the transition to a cleaner, more resilient future.
Aging Infrastructure Is Less Capable of Withstanding Shocks
The grid’s challenges are compounded by the fact that it is no sleek, modern machine—it is a creaking relic of a bygone era. Built for a simpler time, when electricity flowed in one direction—from centralized generators to homes—and most power was dispatchable from large-scale plants, today’s grid lacks the agility, resilience, and intelligence required to tackle contemporary energy and climate challenges.
Much of the U.S. grid dates back to the 1960s and 70s. With many components designed for a lifespan of 50 to 80 years, large portions of the infrastructure are now approaching the end of their useful life. Over the next 10 to 15 years, substantial investment will be required just to replace aging equipment. Yet as these systems age, their fragility increases, leaving them less capable of absorbing shocks—whether from surging demand, extreme weather, or the growing complexity of renewable integration.
In its current state, the grid is ill-prepared to handle the mounting pressures of the energy transition. Without a concerted effort to modernize and expand, the infrastructure risks becoming a bottleneck rather than a bridge to the clean energy future.
The Implications of an Increasingly Fragile Grid
Our deepening dependence on an increasingly fragile grid—one that is both less resilient and less reliable—carries profound economic and social risks. As reliance grows, so too do the stakes, compounding the consequences of grid failures.
How much reliance are we talking about? We just have to observe our growing reliance on electricity. Under current energy policies, electricity’s share of final energy consumption is projected to rise from 20% today to 26% by 2035. In the ambitious Net-Zero Scenario, this share increases to 36% by 2035 and over 50% by 2050. Simultaneously, the contribution of renewables—primarily solar and wind—to electricity generation will grow from 30% in 2023 to 60% by 2050 in business-as-usual scenarios and 70% under the Net-Zero Scenario.
Grid fragility comes at a steep economic cost. Power failures disrupt businesses, resulting in lost work hours, damaged inventory, and expensive investments in backup power systems that reduce efficiency and competitiveness. For individuals, blackouts disrupt daily life, particularly during extreme weather when reliable power is vital for heating, cooling, and overall well-being.
Essential services like hospitals face even graver consequences, requiring comprehensive contingency plans to maintain operations during outages.
Futhermore, a less resilient, less reliable grid will slow the transition to a net-zero future. Achieving net-zero emissions depends heavily on integrating variable energy sources like solar and wind, which require a grid that is both extensive and agile.
For instance, high wind output from the central U.S. must be efficiently transported to coastal areas, and abundant solar energy from the Southwest must reach the often-cloudy Northwest. This requires greater interconnectivity and the ability to manage sudden fluctuations in supply and demand—whether from a cloud dimming solar panels, a wind gust accelerating a turbine, or millions of EVs charging simultaneously as people return home.
A fragile grid hampers this progress, prolonging reliance on natural gas and other fossil fuels to compensate for the variability of renewables. It also discourages further adoption of wind and solar, as their integration risks exacerbating grid instability. Without a robust and adaptable grid, the path to net-zero becomes not only more arduous but potentially unattainable.
What Can Be Done?
Reducing Reliance on the Grid
The fragility of the grid and its inability to scale quickly enough raises an interesting question: Should we try to reduce our reliance on it? A fragile grid not only comes with significant costs but also risks becoming a bottleneck to economic growth if it fails to keep pace with soaring demand.
Expanding the grid to match demand faces numerous hurdles, from bureaucratic delays to community opposition to new transmission lines. These challenges stand in stark contrast to the relative ease of expanding individual energy resources. As high-energy industries like AI, semiconductor manufacturing, and battery production continue to grow, it might be prudent to explore alternatives that reduce dependency on the grid.
This approach highlights the value of dispatchable, on-site energy resources. Small Modular Nuclear Reactors (SMRs) and geothermal energy—and some might even include blue hydrogen or natural gas with CCS in this group—could play key roles in providing reliable, decentralized power. These options offer a pathway to reduce grid reliance while maintaining sustainability.
However, not everyone can afford their own backyard power station. So, perhaps it is necessary to make the grid less fragile.
Making the Grid Less Fragile
How can we make the grid less fragile? The answer, at its core, is simple: build more backups to ensure demand is met in all situations and strengthen the system to withstand shocks. But implementing this solution is far more complex.
For decades, the grid operated on a straightforward principle: supply followed demand. Centralized, dispatchable generation made this possible. Renewables, however, have flipped the script. Their variable output rarely aligns with fluctuating demand, leading to mismatches. When supply exceeds demand, curtailment occurs—renewable generation is switched off, wasting energy. When demand outstrips supply, blackouts loom, though fossil fuel plants often ramp up to fill the gap.
The challenge lies in achieving alignment between supply and demand under all conditions. To make variable supply behave more like demand, we need sufficient storage to smooth out fluctuations. An extensive grid can also help, as diversification across geographies reduces variability. Conversely, making demand more flexible—adjusting it in response to supply—eases the burden on the grid. Combining these solutions can reduce the need for extreme grid agility and scale.
Another crucial step is fortifying infrastructure against increasingly severe weather. Efforts like storm-hardening is already happening at several places impacted by bad weather, reducing vulnerabilities and making components tougher.
These improvements enhance reliability by enabling the grid to manage fluctuating supply and demand while also withstanding harsher conditions.
Yet, a critical question remains: how can the grid accommodate rapidly growing demand without compromising its stability or overburdening its systems?
Microgrids: The Best of Both Worlds
Microgrids offer a compelling solution, blending the benefits of decentralization and reduced reliance while also helping to improve the grid-wide resilience. They are suitable for data center hubs, manufacturing hubs, military bases, hospitals or local communities. These localized energy systems, powered by renewables, large batteries, and often natural gas (with potential replacements like geothermal or nuclear), can operate independently or in tandem with the larger grid.
In normal conditions, microgrids can supply excess energy to the main grid, easing demand pressures on it. During blackouts, they can detach from the main grid, maintaining operations in their local area and even providing critical blackstart services to help revive the grid. Unlike large-scale transmission projects, microgrids are less likely to face community opposition since they are locally focused. They can also be built more quickly, accelerating energy availability where it’s most needed.
By increasing reliability and providing a buffer against major disruptions, microgrids can enhance overall grid resilience. They allow for a faster recovery from adverse events while supporting a smoother transition to a more electrified and sustainable future.
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